晨化股份：Q3净利同比增长，聚醚胺仍待复苏

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 10.71 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a net profit growth of 71% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, with a 69% increase in Q3 alone. Revenue for the first three quarters was RMB 685 million, down 4.6% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 67 million (RMB 47 million after deducting non-recurring gains and losses), reflecting a 70.6% increase year-on-year (131.2% after deduction) [2][4]. - The rapid growth in net profit is attributed to the company's proactive adjustment of its production structure and strong sales of high-value-added polyether amine products. An expected recovery in demand from the wind power sector is anticipated to improve the market for traditional polyether amine products [2][4]. - The price of polyether amine D230 remains under pressure, with a 7% decrease in average price in East China to RMB 12,900 per ton in Q3 2024. The company has adjusted its production structure to stop loss-making products and focus on high-demand grades, with prices for other grades ranging from RMB 14,000 to RMB 30,000 per ton [3][4]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters increased by 3.6 percentage points to 20.0%, with Q3 gross profit margin rising by 3.3 percentage points to 21.7%. The sales net profit margin increased by 4.3 percentage points year-on-year to 9.5% [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 685 million, a decrease of 4.6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 67 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 70.6% [2][4]. - The company’s projected net profits for 2024-2026 are RMB 93 million, RMB 108 million, and RMB 120 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 53%, 16%, and 11% [4][5]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are RMB 0.44, RMB 0.51, and RMB 0.56 respectively [4][5]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the polyether amine market and the contribution from ongoing projects, which are anticipated to provide incremental growth in the future [4]. - The target price of RMB 10.71 is based on a 21x price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025, aligning with the average consensus forecast for comparable companies [4].