Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - The company issued a positive profit warning, expecting a net profit of approximately USD 100 million for the first nine months, a year-on-year increase of over 300% [2] - The flagship brand EGO performed strongly, driving accelerated revenue growth in Q3 [2] - The company is confident in achieving its full-year revenue growth target of over 20%, with H2 revenue growth expected to reach 30% [2] - Q3 performance exceeded expectations, leading to an upward revision of full-year earnings [3] - The company's gross margin continues to improve due to cost dilution, driven by product structure optimization, scale effects, and declining lithium battery costs [3] - Channel destocking has ended, and interest rate cuts are expected to catalyze sustained high revenue growth in H2 [3] - The company's valuation is attractive, with projected revenues of USD 1.67 billion, USD 1.97 billion, and USD 2.24 billion for 2024-2026, and net profits of USD 130 million, USD 150 million, and USD 170 million, respectively [3] Financial Performance - Q3 net profit is expected to be approximately USD 38 million, following a net profit of USD 62 million in H1 2024 [2] - The company's revenue growth is accelerating, driven by strong terminal sales of the EGO brand, a low base in 2023, and restocking orders after channel destocking [2] - The company's gross margin improved in H1, benefiting from product structure optimization, scale effects, and lower lithium battery costs [3] - The company's revenue growth is expected to remain strong in H2, supported by year-end promotions, preparations for 2025 inventory, and improved channel inventory health [3] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 11x, 9x, and 8x, respectively [3] Industry Outlook - The OPE (Outdoor Power Equipment) industry has significant upward potential, with the company well-positioned to benefit from this trend [3] - Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are expected to boost demand for post-real estate cycle products and enhance consumer purchasing power for big-ticket items, particularly in the OPE category [3] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 21.19% in 2024, 18.13% in 2025, and 13.87% in 2026 [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow by 14.51% in 2025 and 12.46% in 2026 [4] - The company's gross margin is expected to be 33.35% in 2024, 32.53% in 2025, and 32.38% in 2026 [6] - ROE is projected to be 11.11% in 2024, 10.61% in 2025, and 10.04% in 2026 [6] - The company's EPS is expected to be USD 0.25 in 2024, USD 0.29 in 2025, and USD 0.33 in 2026 [6]
泉峰控股：公司Q3预告超预期，全年业绩上调