AKESO(09926) 国泰君安·2024-10-18 07:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 康方生物 (9926) [4][3] Core Insights - The clinical data for 卡度尼利 in first-line cervical cancer is impressive, with significant benefits observed across the entire population. The company has completed a new round of stock placement to accelerate global development of new drugs [3][4] - The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards to 29.40 billion, 47.76 billion, and 67.55 billion RMB respectively, compared to the previous estimates of 29.24 billion, 47.69 billion, and 65.95 billion RMB [4] - The ODAC meeting has further refined the first-line gastric cancer population, enhancing 卡度尼利's competitive advantage [4] Summary by Sections Clinical Data - The results from the Phase III clinical study for 卡度尼利 combined with platinum-based chemotherapy ± bevacizumab for first-line treatment of persistent, recurrent, or metastatic cervical cancer showed a progression-free survival (PFS) of 12.7 months versus 8.1 months for the control group (HR=0.62) and overall survival (OS) results of NR versus 22.8 months (HR=0.64) [4][8] - In the gastric cancer setting, 卡度尼利 demonstrated significant overall survival benefits, particularly in patients with low PD-L1 expression [4][9] Financial Overview - The company successfully raised approximately 19.42 billion HKD through a new stock placement, with over 8.2 billion HKD expected to be allocated for accelerating clinical development of core products globally [4][5] - The current market capitalization of 康方生物 is approximately 58.835 billion HKD, with a share price range over the past year between 31.80 and 74.40 HKD [5][4] Competitive Landscape - The FDA's recent ODAC meeting supported the segmentation of PD-1 drug applications based on PD-L1 expression levels, which positions 卡度尼利 favorably against existing treatments for gastric cancer [4][9] - The report highlights that 卡度尼利's treatment regimen offers significant survival benefits compared to PD-1 monoclonal antibodies, particularly in populations with low PD-L1 expression [4][8]