海通发展：2024年三季报点评：Q3业绩持续亮眼，船队实力拾级而上

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company reported a strong Q3 performance with revenue of 900 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 170 million yuan, up 849% year-on-year. The total net profit for the first three quarters reached 410 million yuan, representing a 171% increase year-on-year [1] - The BDI index averaged 1871 in Q3, up 57% year-on-year, while the BSI index averaged 1320, up 45% year-on-year. The company is expected to continue achieving excess returns through selective routes and refined operations [1] - The company is adapting to market trends with a rapid increase in capacity, having acquired 2 Capesize and 3 Panamax bulk carriers in Q3. These larger vessels can transport more cargo at a lower unit cost, which is expected to generate strong profit margins in an upward market cycle for bulk shipping [1] - The company’s fleet structure includes 2 Capesize, 3 Panamax, and 42 Supramax vessels, ranking among the top in domestic bulk cargo transportation [1] - The upcoming peak season in Q4 and the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to alleviate previous demand-side pressures, while the imminent production of the Ximandu project may significantly impact supply-demand dynamics [1] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 3.068 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 80%, and net profit is expected to be 585 million yuan, a 216% increase. The EPS for 2024 is forecasted at 0.64 yuan [5][3] - The company maintains lower operating costs compared to peers, achieving superior TCE levels through selective routes and flexible positioning, which is expected to lead to significant profit elasticity [3] - The financial forecasts for 2025 and 2026 indicate continued growth, with net profits projected at 792 million yuan and 957 million yuan, respectively, and corresponding EPS of 0.86 yuan and 1.05 yuan [5][3]