CFMOTO(603129) 国海证券·2024-10-18 10:30Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for the company [2] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit showed significant growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue reaching 11.45 billion yuan, a 22.0% year-on-year increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 1.081 billion yuan, a 34.9% year-on-year increase [3] - The large-displacement motorcycle market and export market remain highly prosperous, with sales of motorcycles above 250cc increasing by 39.82% year-on-year and motorcycle exports growing by 27.19% year-on-year [3] - The company's expense ratios decreased, with sales/management/R&D expense ratios dropping by 2.9/0.3/0.3 percentage points respectively, totaling a 3.5 percentage point reduction [3] - The company released a stock option incentive plan and an employee stock ownership plan, with performance targets set for 2024-2026 [3] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024-2026E is forecasted to be 14.485/17.169/20.458 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.61%/18.53%/19.16% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026E is projected to be 1.344/1.683/2.069 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 33.41%/25.21%/22.94% [3] - EPS for 2024-2026E is expected to be 8.88/11.11/13.66 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.50/13.98/11.37X [3] Industry Analysis - The motorcycle industry saw a 11.31% year-on-year increase in sales of fuel motorcycles, with 12.2711 million units sold in the first nine months of 2024 [3] - The export market for motorcycles remained strong, with 8.115 million units exported in the first nine months of 2024, a 27.19% year-on-year increase [3] Company Valuation - The company's current price is 155.38 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 78.47-180.14 yuan [3] - The company's market capitalization is 23.52948 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 151.4319 million shares [3] - The company's ROE is expected to be 20%/23%/24%/24% for 2023A/2024E/2025E/2026E [6] - The company's P/E ratios are forecasted to be 15.26/17.50/13.98/11.37X for 2023A/2024E/2025E/2026E [6]