CFMOTO(603129) 财通证券·2024-10-18 10:23Investment Rating - Maintained "Overweight" rating [1][3] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 11.45 billion yuan, up 21.98% YoY, and net profit of 1.081 billion yuan, up 34.87% YoY [2] - Sales net profit margin remains at a historically high level, with a gross margin of 31.57% and net margin of 9.74% in Q3 2024 [2] - Order backlog remains strong, with contract liabilities of 243 million yuan, up 56.20% YoY [2] - Optimized product structure in the all-terrain vehicle segment, with high-value U/Z series products increasing from 59% in 2018 to 65% in 2023 [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the cyclical recovery in the North American market and accelerated overseas capacity expansion [3] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from 15.085 billion yuan in 2024E to 21.558 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 18.72% [4] - Net profit is forecasted to increase from 1.362 billion yuan in 2024E to 2.113 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 24.50% [4] - EPS is projected to rise from 8.99 yuan in 2024E to 13.95 yuan in 2026E [4] - ROE is expected to improve from 17.06% in 2024E to 22.94% in 2026E [4] Valuation Metrics - PE ratio is forecasted to decline from 17.28x in 2024E to 11.14x in 2026E [4] - PB ratio is expected to decrease from 2.95x in 2024E to 2.55x in 2026E [4] - EV/EBITDA is projected to drop from 10.6x in 2024E to 5.7x in 2026E [5] Industry Outlook - The global all-terrain vehicle market reached 955,000 units in 2023, with North America accounting for 84.3% of sales [3] - The company has successfully broken into the historically oligopolistic market, with the top 5 players previously controlling over 80% of the market [3] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the cyclical recovery in the North American market and accelerate market penetration [3]