川投能源：控参电厂盈利齐升，看好水库蓄能释放

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from increased water storage capacity, which is projected to sustain profit growth. The report highlights a year-on-year increase in water storage levels at key power stations, suggesting a favorable environment for electricity generation in the upcoming quarter [1][3]. - The company's investment in Yalong River Hydropower is anticipated to enhance its profitability, with ongoing projects expected to contribute significantly to revenue [1][3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported revenue of 1,482 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4%. Projections for 2024 and 2025 indicate revenues of 1,682 million yuan and 1,781 million yuan, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 13.4% and 5.9% [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 4,400 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 25.2%. Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 suggest net profits of 5,136 million yuan and 5,509 million yuan, representing growth rates of 16.7% and 7.3% [2][3]. - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 46.4% in 2023 to 52.5% by 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [2][3]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain stable, with estimates of 11.9% for 2023 and slightly declining to 12.2% by 2026 [2][3]. Investment Highlights - The company has a strong stake in Yalong River Hydropower (48%) and Dadu River Hydropower (20%), which are expected to provide stable investment returns and further enhance profitability [3]. - The report notes that the company's electricity generation volume increased by 8.46% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a corresponding rise in electricity prices contributing to improved margins [2][3]. - Financial expenses have decreased due to lower interest rates and the conversion of convertible bonds, leading to a reduction in the debt ratio to 32.17% [2][3].