CATL(300750) 东吴证券·2024-10-19 05:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CATL (300750) [1] Core Views - CATL's Q3 2024 gross margin reached a new high, with actual profits significantly exceeding expectations [3] - Q3 revenue was 92.3 billion yuan, up 12% YoY and 6% QoQ, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.1 billion yuan, up 26% YoY and 6% QoQ [3] - Gross margin in Q3 was 31.2%, up 8.7 percentage points YoY and 4.5 percentage points QoQ [3] - If the 4.7 billion yuan asset impairment is added back, the actual operating profit in Q3 was nearly 17 billion yuan [3] Business Performance Battery Business - Q3 battery shipments reached 125GWh, with domestic power and overseas energy storage demand exceeding expectations [3] - Full-year 2024 shipments are expected to reach 480GWh, a 23% YoY increase, with 2025 shipments projected at 580-600GWh, a 20-25% increase [3] - Q3 energy storage shipments were 30GWh, up 65% YoY and 20% QoQ, with full-year 2024 energy storage shipments expected to reach 105-110GWh, a 55% YoY increase [3] - Q3 power battery shipments were 95GWh, up 16% YoY and 12% QoQ, with full-year 2024 power battery shipments expected to exceed 370GWh, a 16% YoY increase [3] Profitability - Q3 power battery average price was 0.75 yuan/Wh, down 5% QoQ, with a gross margin of 31% and a profit of 0.12 yuan/Wh [3] - Q3 energy storage average price was 0.67 yuan/Wh, down 5% QoQ, with a gross margin of 34% and a profit of 0.12 yuan/Wh [3] - Profitability exceeded expectations due to premium pricing from new products like Shenxing, Kirin, and 314Ah, as well as reduced depreciation costs from economies of scale [3] Market Share - CATL's global market share in power batteries is expected to remain at 37% in 2024, with domestic market share at 45-50% and overseas market share at 26% [15] - In 2024, CATL's global energy storage market share is expected to remain stable at 35%, maintaining its position as the global leader [18] New Products - Shenxing and Kirin batteries accounted for over 30% of CATL's domestic shipments in Q3 2024, with the proportion expected to increase to 60-70% by 2025 [17] - Shenxing batteries are used in models like the Zeekr 001, Xiaomi SU7, and AION Y Plus, while Kirin batteries are used in models like the Zeekr 001/007/009 and Xiaomi SU7 [17] Financial Performance Profit Forecast - The report revises CATL's profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 50.2/61.7/75.6 billion yuan, up from the previous forecast of 50.2/60.5/72.8 billion yuan [28] - The revised forecast represents YoY growth of 14%/23%/22% for 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22/18/15x [28] - The target price is set at 393 yuan, based on a 28x P/E ratio for 2025 [28] Asset Impairment - CATL recorded a 4.7 billion yuan asset impairment loss in Q3 2024, including 1.9 billion yuan in fixed asset impairment and 2 billion yuan in intangible asset impairment [23] - The impairment was mainly related to lithium resource assets, with the book value of mining rights reduced to 4 billion yuan after impairment [23] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - Q3 operating cash flow was 22.7 billion yuan, up 46% YoY and 39% QoQ [26] - Q3 capital expenditure was 7.4 billion yuan, up 10% QoQ, with steady progress in capacity expansion [26] Industry Outlook - Overseas energy storage demand is growing rapidly, with CATL securing multiple large-scale energy storage orders globally [19] - CATL has strategic partnerships with companies like Rolls-Royce, Tesla, and Fluence, with significant orders expected to drive future growth [19] Financial Metrics - CATL's Q3 2024 revenue was 92.3 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.1 billion yuan [10] - Q3 gross margin was 31.2%, with a net margin of 14.2% [10] - Q3 operating cash flow was 22.7 billion yuan, with capital expenditure of 7.4 billion yuan [26]