Western Mining(601168) 民生证券·2024-10-19 08:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 36.725 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.93%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.732 billion yuan, up 24.33% year-on-year [2]. - The company is progressing with expansion projects, which are expected to improve profitability in the smelting segment. Key projects include the expansion of the Yulong Copper Mine and the successful trial production of multiple smelting projects [2]. - The forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 3.731 billion yuan, 4.263 billion yuan, and 4.938 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11x, 10x, and 8x [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 11.748 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.02%, and a net profit of 1.112 billion yuan, which is a 60.91% increase year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 is projected to improve, with a forecasted gross margin of 21.09% in 2024, increasing to 24.30% by 2026 [6]. - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 52.067 billion yuan in 2023 to 66.037 billion yuan by 2026 [7]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 42.748 billion yuan in 2023 to 53.840 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.2% [3][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 2.789 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.938 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3][6]. Key Projects and Developments - The Yulong Copper Mine is undergoing a 30 million ton capacity expansion, while the Shuangli Iron Mine is also progressing with its expansion project [2]. - The company has successfully initiated trial production for several smelting projects, which are anticipated to enhance profitability significantly [2].