CATL(SZ:300750) Minsheng Securities·2024-10-19 09:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for CATL (300750 SZ) [1][2] Core Views - CATL's Q3 2024 performance met expectations with steady gross margin improvement [1] - Revenue and net profit showed mixed trends: Q3 revenue decreased 12 48% YoY but increased 6 07% QoQ, while net profit grew 25 97% YoY and 6 32% QoQ [1] - Gross margin reached 31 17% in Q3 2024, up 8 75 percentage points YoY and 4 53 percentage points QoQ [1] - Market share continues to expand, with global power battery usage market share reaching 37 1% from January to August 2024, up 1 6 percentage points YoY [1] - R&D investment remains strong, with 130 73 billion yuan spent in the first nine months of 2024, leading to innovative product launches [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2024 Q3 revenue: 922 78 billion yuan (-12 48% YoY, +6 07% QoQ) [1] - 2024 Q3 net profit: 131 36 billion yuan (+25 97% YoY, +6 32% QoQ) [1] - 2024 Q3 net margin: 15 01% (+4 54 percentage points YoY, -0 71 percentage points QoQ) [1] Market Position - Battery sales volume: 325GWh in the first three quarters of 2024, up 20% YoY [1] - Domestic market share: 45 9% from January to September 2024, up 3 1 percentage points YoY [1] R&D and Innovation - New product launches include Shenxing Plus battery and super hybrid battery [1] - Commercial vehicle battery brand launched with fast charging and long-range capabilities [1] - Global debut of 5-year zero-decay, 6 25MWh Tianheng energy storage system [1] Financial Projections Revenue - 2024E: 357 758 billion yuan (-10 8% YoY) [2] - 2025E: 439 017 billion yuan (+22 7% YoY) [2] - 2026E: 515 356 billion yuan (+17 4% YoY) [2] Net Profit - 2024E: 52 961 billion yuan (+20 0% YoY) [2] - 2025E: 65 726 billion yuan (+24 1% YoY) [2] - 2026E: 77 408 billion yuan (+17 8% YoY) [2] Valuation - 2024E PE: 21x [2] - 2025E PE: 17x [2] - 2026E PE: 14x [2] Financial Ratios Profitability - 2024E gross margin: 28 55% [5] - 2024E net margin: 14 80% [5] - 2024E ROE: 23 24% [5] Growth - 2024E revenue growth: -10 77% [5] - 2024E net profit growth: 20 04% [5] Efficiency - 2024E asset turnover: 0 49 [5] - 2024E inventory turnover days: 80 00 [5]