宁德时代：经营性利润超预期，资本开支加速迎接全面复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 259 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 12%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 16% to 36 billion RMB [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 92.3 billion RMB, with a year-over-year increase in net profit of 26% [2][3]. - The company’s gross margin and net margin for Q3 were 31.2% and 15.0%, respectively [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - The company expects to ship 125 GWh in Q3 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 25% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 14% [3]. - The average selling price in Q3 was estimated at 0.63 RMB/Wh, down 30% year-over-year, while costs decreased by 38% to 0.43 RMB/Wh [3]. - The company recorded a significant asset impairment of nearly 4.8 billion RMB in Q3, but operational profit exceeded expectations, reflecting strong cost control and industry influence [3]. Financial Health - The company’s fixed assets stood at 110.6 billion RMB, with capital expenditures in Q3 reaching 7.4 billion RMB, indicating an increase compared to the first two quarters [3]. - Inventory increased by 22% year-over-year to 55.2 billion RMB, driven by higher finished goods and in-transit products due to rising demand [3]. - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 67.4 billion RMB, a 28% increase year-over-year, with cash and cash equivalents totaling 264.7 billion RMB [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report projects profits of 53.4 billion RMB, 70.2 billion RMB, and 82.5 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21x, 16x, and 13x [4]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the global power and energy storage battery market, benefiting from strong R&D and supply chain integration [4].