盛新锂能：木绒矿探转采，锂自供率有望大幅提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a reasonable value target of 18.35 CNY per share [3][12]. Core Views - The company has received a mining license for its Muroong lithium mine, which is expected to significantly enhance its lithium self-supply rate. The mine is projected to reach an annual production capacity of approximately 70,000 tons of LCE [1]. - The total identified ore resource at the Muroong lithium mine is 61.095 million tons, containing 989,600 tons of lithium oxide, equivalent to about 2.44 million tons of LCE, with an average grade of 1.62% [1]. - The company anticipates a substantial increase in its lithium self-supply rate upon the successful production ramp-up of the Muroong lithium mine, which is expected to be supported by government initiatives and infrastructure cooperation [1]. Financial Summary - The company's projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 24 million CNY, 70 million CNY, and 92 million CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.03 CNY, 0.08 CNY, and 0.10 CNY per share [2][12]. - Revenue for 2024 is expected to be 6.61 billion CNY, with a decline of 16.9% from the previous year, followed by a recovery in 2025 with a projected increase of 28.9% [2][16]. - The company’s EBITDA is forecasted to be 848 million CNY in 2024, increasing to 1.02 billion CNY in 2025 [2][16]. Production and Cost Assumptions - The company expects stable operations from its existing lithium mines, with projected self-produced lithium (in LCE) of 38,000 tons annually for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [10]. - The production cost for self-produced lithium is estimated to remain stable at 55,000 CNY per ton for the next three years, while the cost for externally purchased lithium is projected to decrease [10][12]. Market Conditions - The report suggests that the decline in lithium prices is expected to slow down, which may lead to improved profitability for the company, particularly in its external lithium processing segment [12][16]. - The anticipated average price for lithium carbonate is projected to be 90,000 CNY per ton in 2024, decreasing to 75,000 CNY per ton in 2025 and remaining stable in 2026 [10].