HUAYOU COBALT(SH:603799) Soochow Securities·2024-10-20 10:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance exceeded market expectations, with a revenue of 45.5 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [3] - Q3 saw a significant increase in nickel product shipments, with approximately 60,000 tons shipped, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of over 50% [3] - The report projects a target price of 38.6 yuan for the stock, based on an expected PE ratio of 15x for 2024 [4] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 63.034 billion yuan, with a forecasted revenue of 59.496 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.27% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise to 4.356 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.98% [2] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 2.57 yuan in 2024, with a PE ratio of 11.28 [2] Nickel and Other Product Insights - Nickel product shipments are expected to reach 180,000 to 200,000 tons for the year, with Q3 contributing significantly to this total [3] - The company anticipates a gross profit contribution of 15 to 20 billion yuan from nickel operations in Q3, with a unit gross profit of over 30,000 yuan per ton [3] - The copper and cobalt businesses are expected to contribute stable profits, while the lithium business is projected to break even [3] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Capital expenditures for the first three quarters of 2024 are estimated at 5.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 53% year-on-year [4] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 is projected at 3.8 billion yuan, an increase of 55% year-on-year [4]