CATL(SZ:300750) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-20 10:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an updated target price of 353.00 yuan, reflecting a 25 times PE for 2025, up from the previous target of 287.75 yuan [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has a strong competitive moat due to continuous product innovation and robust profitability, leading to a steady increase in market share [3]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 92.278 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 12.5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.136 billion yuan, up 26.0% year-on-year and 6.3% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The gross margin significantly improved to 31.17%, an increase of 8.75 percentage points year-on-year and 4.53 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, driven by lower raw material costs and higher utilization rates [3]. - The company’s global market share reached 37.1% in the first eight months of 2024, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, while domestic market share was 45.9%, maintaining the leading position with a year-on-year increase of 3.1 percentage points [3]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to generate revenue of 361.741 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.8% from 2023, with net profit projected at 50.932 billion yuan, a 15.4% increase [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024 is 11.57 yuan, with subsequent years projected at 14.12 yuan for 2025 and 16.93 yuan for 2026 [4]. - The net asset return rate is expected to be 18.9% in 2024, slightly down from 22.3% in 2023 [4].