Inovance(300124) 东吴证券·2024-10-20 10:30Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Industrial control business is entering the bottom range, while new energy vehicles continue to exceed expectations [1] - 24Q1-3 revenue is expected to increase by 20%-30% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company ranging from -4% to +6% YoY, slightly below market expectations [3] - General automation demand is under pressure but still outperforms the industry, with Q3 revenue expected to decline for the first time since 2022, but recovery to +10% growth is anticipated in Q4 [3] - New energy vehicle business is expected to grow by over 90% YoY in 24Q1-3, with Q3 revenue up by over 70% YoY, maintaining a net profit margin of 5-6% [3] - Elevator business is expected to decline by around 5% YoY in 24Q1-3, with Q3 revenue expected to drop by 10%-5% YoY, but policy support may stabilize the market [4] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 37,561 million yuan, a 23.47% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 5,028 million yuan, up 6.04% YoY [2] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at 1.88 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 31.16x [2] - Revenue for 2025E is projected at 46,066 million yuan, a 22.64% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 6,012 million yuan, up 19.56% YoY [2] - EPS for 2025E is forecasted at 2.24 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 26.06x [2] - Revenue for 2026E is projected at 54,585 million yuan, an 18.49% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 7,177 million yuan, up 19.39% YoY [2] - EPS for 2026E is forecasted at 2.68 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 21.83x [2] Market Data - Closing price: 58.50 yuan [5] - 52-week low/high: 39.17/74.94 yuan [5] - P/B ratio: 6.15x [5] - Market capitalization: 156,671.31 million yuan [5] Financial Highlights - Total assets for 2024E are projected at 55,015 million yuan, with total liabilities at 26,022 million yuan [8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024E is projected at 5,028 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 13.39% [8] - ROE for 2024E is forecasted at 17.68%, with a ROIC of 12.83% [9] - Operating cash flow for 2024E is projected at 2,954 million yuan, with capital expenditures at 1,617 million yuan [9] Industry and Business Segments - General automation: Q3 revenue is expected to decline by 5%-0% YoY, but recovery to +10% growth is anticipated in Q4 [3] - New energy vehicles: Q3 revenue is expected to grow by over 70% YoY, with a net profit margin of 5-6% [3] - Elevator: Q3 revenue is expected to decline by 10%-5% YoY, but policy support may stabilize the market [4]