ASML Holding(ASML) 国泰君安·2024-10-20 11:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for ASML (ASML O) with a target price of $950 for FY2025 based on a Forward PE of 36x [3][12] Core Views - New orders fell short of expectations in Q3 2024, with new orders totaling €2 64 billion, significantly below the expected €5 39 billion This was primarily due to delays in advanced process technologies by certain customers and the failure of HBM products to pass NVIDIA's testing, leading to postponed demand for lithography machines [3][11] - AI related demand remains strong, but the company revised its 2025 revenue guidance downward to €300 350 billion (from €300 400 billion) and lowered its gross margin guidance to 51% 53% (from 54% 56%) due to slower recovery in non AI demand and delays in customer processes [3] - Long term upside potential exists due to shifts in market share among foundries, with key customer TSMC expected to benefit from 2nm and more advanced processes, driving demand for advanced lithography equipment [3] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was €7 47 billion, up 12% YoY and 20% QoQ, exceeding consensus estimates of €7 20 billion Gross margin was 50 8%, in line with expectations, while GAAP net profit reached €2 08 billion, up 10% YoY and above consensus estimates of €1 91 billion [7] - EUV shipments in Q3 2024 were 11 units, below the expected 14 units, while ArFi shipments were 38 units, exceeding the expected 27 units EUV revenue was €2 07 billion, below the expected €2 64 billion, while DUV revenue was €3 73 billion, above the expected €2 87 billion [9] - Backlog of orders stood at €35 7 billion in Q3 2024, up 2% YoY but down 8% QoQ [3] Regional Performance - China accounted for 47% of Q3 2024 revenue, but this is expected to normalize to around 20% in the future Other regions included South Korea (15%), Taiwan (15%), the US (21%), and Japan (2%) [10] Market and Industry Insights - Foundry competition is shifting, with potential upside from market share redistribution among foundries TSMC is expected to maintain strong demand for advanced lithography equipment due to its leadership in 2nm and beyond processes [3] - High NA EUV progress is on track, and ArFi revenue (excluding China) is expected to grow YoY in FY2025 However, delays in advanced process technologies by some customers and the end of counter cyclical capacity expansion in China may lead to a YoY decline in China revenue for FY2025 [12]