森麒麟：前三季度归母净利润同比增长74%，摩洛哥项目如期投产

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [3][10]. Core Views - The company achieved a 74% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first three quarters, with the Morocco project commencing production as scheduled [1][4]. - The third quarter net profit reached a historical high of 650 million yuan, aligning with expectations. The company's revenue for the first three quarters was 6.34 billion yuan, a 10.4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.73 billion yuan, reflecting a 73.7% year-on-year growth [1][4]. - The company benefits from increased production and sales volumes, as well as tax rebates for semi-steel tires from its Thailand base [4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 6.34 billion yuan (up 10.4% year-on-year) and a net profit of 1.73 billion yuan (up 73.7% year-on-year). The gross margin was 35.5% (up 11.1 percentage points), and the net margin was 27.2% (up 9.9 percentage points) [1][4]. - For Q3 2024, revenue was 2.23 billion yuan (up 1.1% year-on-year, up 11.8% quarter-on-quarter), and net profit was 650 million yuan (up 67.5% year-on-year, up 13.0% quarter-on-quarter) [1][4]. Production and Sales - The company produced 23.56 million semi-steel tires in the first three quarters of 2024 (up 13.7% year-on-year) and sold 22.68 million (up 7.3% year-on-year). Full-steel tire production was 685,000 (up 26.1% year-on-year) with sales of 677,000 (up 30.1% year-on-year) [1][8]. - The third quarter saw semi-steel tire production of 7.96 million (up 6.4% year-on-year, up 1.4% quarter-on-quarter) and sales of 8.07 million (up 4.3% year-on-year, up 10.1% quarter-on-quarter) [8][9]. Strategic Developments - The first batch of semi-steel tires from the Morocco project was officially launched on September 30, 2024, with a planned capacity of 12 million tires expected to reach full production by 2026 [1][9]. - The company is implementing its "833plus" strategic plan, aiming to establish eight digital intelligent manufacturing bases globally over the next ten years, enhancing its market penetration in the U.S. and Europe [1][9]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised upward to 2.27 billion, 2.45 billion, and 2.76 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 65.7%, 7.8%, and 12.7% [10][12]. - The diluted EPS for the same period is projected to be 2.20, 2.38, and 2.68 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.5, 10.7, and 9.5 times [10][12].