Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's main brands, including Tai Er, Song, and Jiu Mao Jiu, have maintained steady expansion, with a high likelihood of achieving the full-year expansion targets [2][4] - The company has adjusted its menu to offer more cost-effective products and optimized costs at both the store and headquarters levels, which could contribute to future growth [9] - The company's PE valuation for 2024 is around 20x, which is at the bottom of its historical range, indicating potential for strong profit elasticity if turnover rates improve [9] Expansion and Performance - As of Q3 2024, Tai Er, Song, and Jiu Mao Jiu had 654, 79, and 72 stores respectively, with Tai Er opening 68 new stores in the first three quarters of 2024 [2][4] - The company adjusted its full-year store opening plan for Tai Er to 93 stores (80 in mainland China and 13 overseas) and for Song to 25 stores, which is considered highly achievable [2][4] - The average customer spending per visit for Tai Er, Song, and Jiu Mao Jiu in Q3 2024 was 69, 97, and 54 yuan respectively, with Song experiencing a larger decline due to increased group dining during the summer [2][4] - The turnover rates for Tai Er, Song, and Jiu Mao Jiu in Q3 2024 were 3.6, 3.0, and 2.8 times respectively, showing marginal improvement compared to Q2 [2][4] - Same-store sales for Tai Er, Song, and Jiu Mao Jiu in Q3 2024 were -18.3%, -32.5%, and -10.3% respectively, indicating a bottoming out of the decline compared to Q2 [2][4] Brand Optimization and Innovation - The company has sold off non-core brands such as "Na Wei Da Shu Shi Da Chu" and "Lai Mei Li" to focus on its core brand portfolio [3][6] - Tai Er has opened over 30 "satellite stores" in cities like Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Xiamen, with plans to expand further. These stores are compact, focusing on takeout services, and are expected to complement traditional mall stores [3][8] Financial Forecasts - The report revised the company's revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 to 6.315, 7.281, and 8.738 billion yuan respectively, with net profits adjusted to 219, 292, and 384 million yuan [9] - The PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 20x, 15x, and 12x respectively, reflecting the impact of cost pressures and external operating environment challenges [9]
九毛九：三季度同店销售降幅筑底企稳，期待盈利拐点出现