Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - The company's same-store sales for major brands (Tai Er, Song Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu) showed double-digit declines in 3Q24, but the bottom of same-store performance has been confirmed [1] - Tai Er's average customer spending stabilized QoQ, while Song Hotpot and Jiumaojiu brands saw narrowing declines [1] - The company is expected to benefit from cost-side improvements and potential demand recovery driven by macro stimulus policies [1] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 190 million, RMB 280 million, and RMB 330 million for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively, with P/E ratios of 24X, 16X, and 13X [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be RMB 6,156 million, RMB 7,023 million, and RMB 7,904 million, with growth rates of 2.84%, 14.08%, and 12.55%, respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is expected to be RMB 185 million, RMB 275 million, and RMB 334 million, with growth rates of -59.15%, 48.59%, and 21.33%, respectively [3] - ROE (attributable to the parent company) is forecasted to be 5.26%, 7.25%, and 8.09% for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [3] Operational Highlights - Tai Er's same-store sales declined by 18.3% YoY in 3Q24, with a stable average customer spending of RMB 69 and a turnover rate of 3.6 times [1] - Song Hotpot's same-store sales declined by 32.5% YoY in 3Q24, with a narrowing decline of 4.1 percentage points QoQ and a turnover rate of 3 times [1] - Jiumaojiu's same-store sales declined by 10.3% YoY in 3Q24, with a narrowing decline of 2.3 percentage points QoQ and a turnover rate of 2.8 times [1] - The total number of Tai Er stores reached 654 by the end of 3Q24, with 642 directly operated stores and 12 franchised stores [1] - The total number of Song Hotpot stores reached 79 by the end of 3Q24, with 6 new stores added in Q3 [1] - The total number of Jiumaojiu stores remained unchanged at 72 by the end of 3Q24 [1] Future Outlook - The company expects cost-side improvements, particularly in labor and rental costs, to provide operational leverage [1] - The company anticipates demand recovery in Q4 due to lower YoY comparables and macro stimulus policies introduced since late September [1]
九毛九：Q3环比企稳，期待经营弹性