Semir(002563) 国泰君安·2024-10-21 09:10Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Semir Garments (002563) with a target price of CNY 7.50, up from the previous target of CNY 7.16 [6] Core Views - The new store model of Semir Garments has shown significant operational efficiency improvements, supporting the brand's high-quality development [4] - The company's channel operations have improved significantly, with steady performance growth expected [6] - Semir Garments is expected to maintain its leading position in the mass apparel market, with a higher-than-industry-average PE ratio of 15x for 2024 [12] Channel and Store Performance - The new store model features larger store areas (over 300 sqm), a more youthful and fashionable image, and a richer SKU assortment [12] - The company has expanded its product categories, including Semir Kids and accessories, which is expected to increase the purchase rate [12] - Marketing activities have been enhanced, with diversified promotional campaigns and traffic-driving products, which are expected to boost sales conversion rates [12] Operational Advantages - Product advantages: The company has implemented a product manager system, refined SKU management, and focused on core categories like Semir Soft Denim and Balabala's IP collaborations [12] - Supply chain advantages: The flexible supply chain has significantly shortened the supply cycle, and digitalization has improved inventory turnover efficiency [12] - Omni-channel retail advantages: The company has promoted an integrated omni-channel layout, with a significant increase in the proportion of products with the same price online and offline, leading to steady growth in store efficiency [12] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow from CNY 13,661 million in 2023 to CNY 17,282 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 8.4% from 2024 to 2026 [11] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from CNY 1,122 million in 2023 to CNY 1,791 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 17.1% from 2024 to 2026 [11] - The company's ROE is expected to rise from 9.8% in 2023 to 13.4% in 2026 [11] Expansion and Growth Potential - In the first half of 2024, the company opened 203 new stores, a 3% year-on-year increase, and is expected to continue rapid store expansion in the second half of the year [12] - The company has the potential to capture more high-quality channel resources as smaller brands exit the market, with an estimated 1,000-2,000 stores closed during the pandemic [12] - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a projected dividend yield of over 5% in 2024 [12] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's 2024E PE ratio is 12.55x, lower than the industry average of 13x, indicating potential undervaluation [11] - Compared to peers like Peacebird (603877.SH) and Hla Group (600398.SH), Semir Garments has a relatively lower PE ratio for 2024E [14]