CHINA RAILWAY(601390) 东方财富·2024-10-21 10:03Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to China Railway Group (601390) [4][6] Core Views - China Railway Group is a leading player in railway infrastructure construction with a stable and growing market share The company has diversified its business into construction engineering equipment manufacturing mining resource development and real estate development [2] - The company is expected to benefit from fiscal policy easing and debt resolution measures which will improve infrastructure demand and reduce potential impairment risks [2] - The company's valuation is currently at a low level among the eight major construction central state-owned enterprises reflecting market concerns about cash flow and development prospects However with the improvement of local government fiscal conditions the company's cash flow is expected to improve and valuation factors are expected to gradually dissipate [2] - The company's subsidiary China Railway Resources has contributed over 5 billion yuan in profits in 2023 and is expected to further drive the company's value revaluation [2] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's market capitalization is 16533421 million yuan with a circulating market capitalization of 13640193 million yuan [3] - The company's revenue is expected to be 1209689 billion yuan in 2024 1290957 billion yuan in 2025 and 1361041 billion yuan in 2026 with growth rates of -426% 672% and 543% respectively [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 32662 billion yuan in 2024 33582 billion yuan in 2025 and 35910 billion yuan in 2026 with growth rates of -245% 281% and 693% respectively [7] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 495x in 2024 481x in 2025 and 450x in 2026 [7] Business Segments - The company's infrastructure construction business accounted for 86% of total revenue and 76% of total gross profit in 2023 [15] - The company's equipment manufacturing and resource development businesses are expected to improve in profitability further enhancing the company's overall performance elasticity [2] - The company's subsidiary China Railway Resources has contributed over 5 billion yuan in profits in 2023 and is expected to further drive the company's value revaluation [2] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company's market share in railway infrastructure construction has increased from 52% in 2015 to 87% in 2023 demonstrating its comprehensive competitiveness [2] - The company is expected to benefit from fiscal policy easing and debt resolution measures which will improve infrastructure demand and reduce potential impairment risks [2] - The company's valuation is currently at a low level among the eight major construction central state-owned enterprises reflecting market concerns about cash flow and development prospects However with the improvement of local government fiscal conditions the company's cash flow is expected to improve and valuation factors are expected to gradually dissipate [2] Industry Outlook - Fiscal policy easing and debt resolution measures are expected to improve infrastructure demand and reduce potential impairment risks [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of infrastructure demand and the improvement of local government fiscal conditions [2] - The company's equipment manufacturing and resource development businesses are expected to improve in profitability further enhancing the company's overall performance elasticity [2]