Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Laopu Gold (06181 HK) for the first time [1] Core Views - Laopu Gold is positioned as a high-end jewelry brand specializing in ancient gold craftsmanship, with rapid revenue and profit growth [6] - The ancient gold jewelry market is growing significantly faster than the ordinary gold jewelry market, with penetration still having room for improvement [7] - Laopu Gold's brand premium, product differentiation, and channel expansion are key drivers of growth [7] Company Overview - Laopu Gold focuses on ancient gold craftsmanship, offering products such as jewelry, daily gold utensils, and ornaments [6] - The company operates 33 self-owned stores as of H1 2024, primarily located in high-end shopping malls in first-tier and new first-tier cities [6] - Revenue from offline stores accounted for 88 6% of total revenue in 2023 [6] - Laopu Gold plans to open approximately 10 new stores in mainland China and 5 stores in regions including Hong Kong, Macau, Tokyo, and Singapore over the next three years [6] Financial Performance - Revenue grew from RMB 1 265 billion in 2021 to RMB 3 18 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 58 6% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased from RMB 114 million in 2021 to RMB 416 million in 2023, with a CAGR of 91% [6] - Gross margin remained stable at around 41 9% from 2021 to 2023 [6] - Net margin improved from 9% in 2021 to 13 1% in 2023 [6] Market and Industry Analysis - The ancient gold jewelry market grew from RMB 13 billion in 2018 to RMB 157 3 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 64 6% [7] - The penetration rate of ancient gold jewelry increased from 4 6% in 2018 to 31 2% in 2023 [7] - The top five gold jewelry brands accounted for 46 1% of the ancient gold jewelry market in 2023, with Laopu Gold holding a 2% market share [7] - The price of 9999 gold in China rose from RMB 271 1 per gram in 2018 to RMB 449 9 per gram in 2023 [18] Competitive Advantages - Laopu Gold's products are priced higher than traditional gold jewelry, with 65% of products priced between RMB 10,000 and RMB 50,000 [7] - The company's stores are located in high-end shopping malls, with the top five stores achieving a sales growth of 157 9% in 2023 [7] - Laopu Gold's single-store revenue increased from RMB 52 58 million in 2018 to RMB 98 89 million in 2023, with a CAGR of 13 47% [7] - The company's coverage rate in the top 40 high-end shopping malls in China was 30% in 2023, with plans to expand to 15 new stores by 2026 [7] Valuation and Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 6 432 billion in 2024, RMB 8 753 billion in 2025, and RMB 10 614 billion in 2026 [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach RMB 1 032 billion in 2024, RMB 1 423 billion in 2025, and RMB 1 742 billion in 2026 [4] - The P/E ratio is projected to be 24 9x in 2024, 18x in 2025, and 14 7x in 2026 [4] Product and Customer Analysis - Laopu Gold's products are primarily priced between RMB 10,000 and RMB 50,000, with gold-inlaid products contributing 56% of revenue in 2023 [7] - Customers spending over RMB 1 million accounted for 15 9% of sales in 2023, up from 8 5% in 2021 [48] - The company's customer base is relatively young, with 45% of followers on Xiaohongshu aged 45 and above [52]
老铺黄金：公司深度报告：古法经典，匠心独运