森麒麟：公司简评报告：单季度利润再创新高，摩洛哥项目放量在即

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company reported a record high quarterly profit in Q3 2024, achieving a total revenue of 6.34 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 10.42%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.726 billion yuan, up 73.72% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the revenue was 2.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.82%, with a net profit of 648 million yuan, up 67.48% year-on-year and 13.04% quarter-on-quarter [2][3] - The company's tire production and sales have steadily increased, supported by the reduction of anti-dumping tax rates in Thailand, which significantly boosted profitability. The tire production reached 24.24 million units in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 14.05%, while sales reached 23.36 million units, up 7.88% year-on-year [3] - The weighted cost of raw materials and shipping costs have declined, which is expected to further enhance profitability. The weighted cost of raw materials was approximately 13,027 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 13.10%, but prices have started to decline post the National Day holiday, easing cost pressures [3] - The Morocco project is set to ramp up production, marking a significant step in the company's global strategy. The first batch of tires from the Morocco factory was officially produced on September 30, 2024, with expectations to release 6-8 million units in 2025 and reach full production of 12 million units in 2026, which is anticipated to be a key growth driver for the company [3] - Based on the performance in the first three quarters, the company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 2.28 billion, 2.59 billion, and 3.35 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.22, 2.52, and 3.25 yuan, and PE ratios of 11, 10, and 8 times [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.34 billion yuan, a net profit of 1.726 billion yuan, and a gross margin of 35.45%, up 11.08 percentage points year-on-year. The net margin was 27.22%, an increase of 9.92 percentage points year-on-year [2][3] - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 8.71 billion, 11.58 billion, and 14.07 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 11.1%, 33.0%, and 21.5% [4] Production and Sales - The company produced 24.24 million tires in the first three quarters of 2024, with a production increase of 14.05% year-on-year. The sales volume was 23.36 million tires, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.88% [3] Cost Structure - The weighted cost of raw materials was approximately 13,027 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year increase of 13.10%. However, a decline in rubber prices post-holiday is expected to alleviate cost pressures [3] Strategic Initiatives - The Morocco factory is expected to significantly contribute to future growth, with production ramping up in 2025 and reaching full capacity in 2026 [3]