Hangcha (603298) Minsheng Securities·2024-10-22 02:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 12.733 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 1.55%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.573 billion yuan, up 21.20% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 22.67%, an increase of 2.46 percentage points year-over-year [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.179 billion yuan, down 2.65% year-over-year, but the net profit increased by 9.07% year-over-year to 566 million yuan. The gross margin improved to 25.24%, up 2.87 percentage points year-over-year [2]. - The growth in profitability is attributed to strong export performance and an increase in the proportion of high-margin electric forklifts. The company sold 306,000 forklifts in China in Q3 2024, with exports accounting for 126,000 units, a year-over-year increase of 19.6% [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from a rebound in domestic forklift demand and steady growth in exports, supported by government policies promoting equipment upgrades and energy-saving transformations [2]. - The company has strengthened its overseas market presence, establishing over 10 overseas sales companies and service centers, enhancing its global brand recognition and market penetration [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.09 billion yuan, 2.35 billion yuan, and 2.63 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding valuations of 11x, 10x, and 9x [2][3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 16.272 billion yuan, 17.072 billion yuan, and 18.755 billion yuan, with growth rates of 12.9%, 4.9%, and 9.9% respectively [3][7].