LIHUA(300761) GF SECURITIES·2024-10-22 02:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 30.32 CNY per share, corresponding to a PE valuation of 16 times for 2024 [3]. Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in Q3, with a revenue of 12.7 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14%, and a net profit of 1.16 billion CNY, up 508% year-on-year. The growth is attributed to a notable decrease in breeding costs and an increase in the output of yellow feathered chickens and pigs [1]. - In Q3, the output of yellow chickens increased by 14%, with a profit of approximately 3 CNY per chicken. The average selling price was around 13.2 CNY per kilogram. The company maintained stable growth in breeding scale, with a total output of about 3.8 billion chickens in the first three quarters, a 12% increase year-on-year [1]. - The breeding cost for pigs continued to decline, with an average profit of about 615 CNY per pig in Q3. The company expects to increase pig output to 1.2 million heads in 2024, supported by improved production performance and lower feed costs [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 is 1.92, 2.07, and 2.80 CNY, respectively, indicating high earnings growth potential due to reduced breeding costs and rising livestock prices [1]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 14.447 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 29.8%. The projected revenue for 2024 is 17.130 billion CNY, reflecting an 11.6% growth rate [2]. - The net profit for 2022 was 891 million CNY, with a significant projected increase to 1.593 billion CNY in 2024, representing a growth rate of 464.2% [2]. - The EPS for 2022 was 1.17 CNY, with a forecasted EPS of 1.92 CNY for 2024, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [2].