金盘科技：2024年三季报点评：利润率表现亮眼，短期经营拐点将至

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown impressive profit margins, with a significant recovery in profitability expected in the near term [3] - The overseas demand for power equipment remains strong, with accelerated order fulfillment and expectations for continued growth [3] - Domestic revenue decline is narrowing, and profit margins are expected to recover to earlier levels [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, revenue increased by 1% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 21% [3] - The company achieved revenues of 4.8 billion yuan and 1.88 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 and Q3 respectively, with net profits of 400 million yuan and 180 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 21% and 28% [3] - Gross margin for Q1-Q3 and Q3 was 24.2% and 25.5%, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 2.1 and 2.8 percentage points [3] Order and Revenue Insights - The demand for transformers in the U.S. data centers and power grids is leading the market, with European and Middle Eastern demand driven by offshore wind and solar storage [3] - The company expects overseas orders to nearly double year-on-year for Q1-Q3, with a shift towards data centers and power grids in the order structure [3] - Domestic revenue for Q3 was 1.31 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 16% but an increase of 8% quarter-on-quarter [3] Cash Flow and Financial Health - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities of -90 million yuan, an increase of 150 million yuan year-on-year [4] - Contract liabilities grew by 22% year-to-date, indicating a healthy order book [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected net profits of 610 million yuan, 820 million yuan, and 1.04 billion yuan, respectively [4] Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a P/E ratio of 27x, 20x, and 16x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The target price for 2025 is set at 53.7 yuan, based on a 30x P/E ratio [4]