STL(SZ:002648) Guoxin Securities·2024-10-22 03:30Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [2][10]. Core Views - The company achieved a 32% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring items in Q3 2024, meeting expectations. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 32.28 billion yuan (up 0.7% year-on-year) and a net profit of 3.69 billion yuan (up 7.6% year-on-year) [5][9]. - The decline in ethane costs has positively impacted the company's profitability, reinforcing its position as a leading integrated producer in the light hydrocarbon industry chain [8][9]. - The company is investing 25.7 billion yuan in a new high-end materials industrial park project, which is expected to enhance its long-term growth prospects [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12.88 billion yuan (up 9.9% year-on-year, up 21.5% quarter-on-quarter) and a net profit of 1.64 billion yuan (up 2.1% year-on-year, up 58.4% quarter-on-quarter) [5][9]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 23.6% (up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, up 3.0 percentage points quarter-on-quarter), while the net margin was 12.7% (down 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, up 3.0 percentage points quarter-on-quarter) [5][9]. - The company's projected net profits for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 5.44 billion, 6.94 billion, and 8.17 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 13.6%, 27.5%, and 17.8% [2][9]. Market and Product Pricing - The average price of ethane in the U.S. for Q3 was 15.7 cents per gallon (down 46.6% year-on-year, down 20.7% quarter-on-quarter), while the domestic propane CFR average was 654.4 dollars per ton (up 4.7% year-on-year, up 3.8% quarter-on-quarter) [8][9]. - The average domestic prices for downstream products in Q3 were as follows: ethylene oxide at 6,865 yuan/ton, ethylene glycol at 4,630 yuan/ton, and polyether at 8,730 yuan/ton [8][9]. Future Growth Potential - The company is set to launch an 800,000-ton multi-carbon alcohol project in July 2024, which will enhance its carbon chain integration [2][9]. - The new materials project is expected to open up future development opportunities, with the first phase entering the environmental assessment stage by December 29, 2023 [2][9].