Yili Chuanning Biotechnology (301301) Guotou Securities·2024-10-22 03:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating with a 6-month target price of 15.91 CNY, which corresponds to a dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of 25 times for 2024 [3][4][8]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue reaching 4.456 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and net profit of 1.076 billion CNY, up 68.07% year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 35.82%, reflecting effective cost control and operational efficiency [1][2]. - The prices of key pharmaceutical intermediates are on an upward trend, driven by increased demand and market shortages. The report highlights three main intermediates: cephalosporin intermediates are recovering, penicillin intermediates are expected to maintain good momentum, and the demand for thiocyanate erythromycin remains stable [2][8]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 24.31%, 12.99%, and 7.94% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 50.37%, 20.33%, and 13.05% for the same years [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.261 billion CNY, an increase of 8.31% year-on-year and 24.60% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for the same period was 310 million CNY, up 24.20% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 37.11%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.98 percentage points, indicating a positive trend in the pricing of pharmaceutical intermediates [1][2]. - The report projects the company's total revenue to reach 5.996 billion CNY in 2024, with net profit expected to be 1.414 billion CNY, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [9][10].