Jovo Energy(SH:605090) Huachuang Securities·2024-10-22 04:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][12][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.781 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.93% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.15%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 429 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.43% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 31.49%. The non-recurring net profit was 420 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.06% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.72% [1]. - The company is expected to initiate a special cash dividend plan in 2024, with a projected dividend yield of 4.3% to 5.7% for the years 2024 to 2026 [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company experienced a foreign exchange loss of approximately 54.57 million yuan due to a decline in the USD/CNY exchange rate. Excluding this impact, the adjusted net profit would have been 483 million yuan [1]. - The average price of JKM Asian gas in Q3 2024 was $13.00 per million British thermal units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.7% [1]. - The company’s three main business segments showed resilience, with LNG sales growing significantly, while LPG sales remained stable. The company is also expanding its LPG terminal project, expected to be completed by 2025 [1][3]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s total revenue is projected to reach 28.805 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.653 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.6% [3][4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.59 yuan in 2024, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11x [3][4]. Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 36.92 yuan, based on a relative valuation method that considers the scarcity of its energy services and the high barriers to entry in its specialty gas business [1][2].