ASML Holding(US:ASML) Huachuang Securities·2024-10-22 07:10Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to ASML, indicating expectations of outperforming the benchmark index by more than 20% in the next six months [34]. Core Insights - ASML's Q3 2024 performance met guidance, with revenue of €7.467 billion, slightly above the upper end of the guidance range [6][9]. - The company anticipates Q4 2024 revenue to be between €8.8 billion and €9.2 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.85% to 23.21% [9][10]. - The demand outlook remains strong in the AI sector, although recovery in other semiconductor markets is expected to be slow, continuing into 2025 [11][12]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In Q3 2024, ASML achieved revenue of €7.467 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.61% and a year-on-year increase of 11.90%, exceeding guidance [6][8]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 50.8%, in line with guidance [6][9]. - The company shipped 11 EUV systems during Q3 2024 [6][8]. Revenue Breakdown - Equipment sales in Q3 2024 amounted to €5.926 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.47% and a year-on-year increase of 11.64% [7][8]. - By technology, ArFi and EUV accounted for 48% and 35% of sales, respectively [7][8]. - By end customer, logic chips represented 64% of sales, while storage chips accounted for 36% [7][8]. - Regionally, sales from mainland China accounted for 47%, with Taiwan and Korea each at 15% [8]. Company Outlook - For Q4 2024, ASML expects revenue between €8.8 billion and €9.2 billion, including €1.9 billion from installation and service management [9][10]. - The company projects 2025 net sales to reach €30 billion to €35 billion, with mainland China expected to contribute around 20% of total revenue [11][12]. - The anticipated gross margin for 2025 is between 51% and 53%, slightly lower than previous expectations due to delays in EUV demand [11][12].