南华期货：权益规模增长，巩固业绩弹性

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 15.17 CNY per share, indicating an expected upside from the current price of 12.75 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a Q3 2024 revenue of 1.82 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 7.08%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 130 million CNY, a decrease of 1.48% year-over-year. For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 4.46 billion CNY, down 7.99% year-over-year, but net profit increased by 20.07% to 356 million CNY [1][2]. - The company's margin income from futures trading has increased, contributing to net profit growth despite a decline in other business revenues [1]. - The company's margin scale continued to grow, reaching 38.99 billion CNY by the end of September 2024, a 34.8% increase compared to the end of 2023 [1]. - The company has implemented several capital measures to enhance its operations and market value, including a convertible bond issuance of up to 1.2 billion CNY and a share buyback plan of 50 to 100 million CNY [1][2]. Financial Summary - The company expects a revenue of 5.84 billion CNY and a net profit of 460 million CNY for the full year 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 15% [2]. - The report forecasts an EPS of 0.76 CNY for 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20x, leading to a reasonable valuation of 15.17 CNY per share [2][4]. - The financial projections indicate a decline in revenue for the next few years, with expected revenues of 5.83 billion CNY in 2024, 5.63 billion CNY in 2025, and 5.45 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a decreasing growth rate [3][8]. Business Development - The company has established a stable presence in international financial services, covering major global markets and offering various financial products [2]. - The asset management business has shown steady growth, with a management scale of 21.42 billion CNY as of June 2024, a 1.5% increase from the end of 2023 [2]. - The company is innovating in the OTC derivatives market, developing new products to help manage market risks [2].