Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to provide an additional cash return of $180 million over the next three years, with a total return rate of 11.1% anticipated for 2024. The company plans to maintain a 70% dividend payout ratio and return up to $60 million annually through special dividends or buybacks, totaling $180 million [4]. - The company has shown stable order growth in Q3 2024, with a revenue increase of 0.6% to $390 million. Manufacturing revenue grew by 0.2% to $380 million, with a shipment volume increase of 5.7% to 12.9 million pairs, although the average selling price (ASP) decreased by 4.9% to $29.3 [4][5]. - The company’s gross margin and EBIT margin reached a ten-year high in 2023, indicating improved production efficiency and profitability for 2024 [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at $1,493 million, with a slight increase to $1,497 million in 2024, followed by $1,563 million in 2025 and $1,640 million in 2026. Year-over-year growth rates are expected to be -8% in 2023, 0% in 2024, 4% in 2025, and 5% in 2026 [5][7]. - Net profit is forecasted to grow from $141 million in 2023 to $166 million in 2024, $186 million in 2025, and $205 million in 2026, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 20%, 17%, and 12% respectively [5][7]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 24.6% in 2023 to 25.3% in 2024, and further to 25.9% by 2026 [5][7]. Market Position and Valuation - The company has been included in the Hang Seng Composite Index and Hong Kong Stock Connect since September 9, leading to improved liquidity and significant net inflows from southbound funds [4]. - The estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is projected to be between 10-11 times, with a corresponding fair value range of HKD 15.80 to 17.38 per share [4][5].
九兴控股：公司公告点评：24Q3订单稳健增长，看好运动产能利用率进一步提升