Himile Science And Technology(SZ:002595) Southwest Securities·2024-10-22 10:22Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" with a target price of 58.30 CNY over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in tire molds, with a market share of 33% in 2023, and is expected to further increase its market share due to the transformation and upgrading of tire manufacturers and continuous enhancement of overseas production capacity [2][9]. - The second growth curve from large components is being realized, with revenue growing from 1.33 billion CNY in 2019 to 2.77 billion CNY in 2023, representing a CAGR of 20% [2]. - The CNC machine tool segment is entering a harvest period after 30 years of development, focusing on the high-end five-axis market, with a CAGR of 87% in revenue from 2021 to 2023 [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Developments - The company focuses on the tire equipment sector and is steadily advancing its international layout [9]. - Revenue continues to expand, with significant improvements in profitability [14]. - The ownership structure is clear and stable, with an effective employee stock ownership plan [20]. 2. Global Leadership in Tire Molds - The tire industry shows stable replacement market demand, with Chinese tire manufacturers accelerating their international expansion [23]. - The global tire mold market exceeded 11.36 billion CNY in 2023 and is expected to grow to 15.62 billion CNY by 2030, with a CAGR of 4.4% [2][29]. 3. CNC Machine Tools - The five-axis CNC market is experiencing steady growth, with significant potential for domestic substitution [2][9]. - The CNC machine tool business has seen rapid revenue growth, with a CAGR of 87% from 2021 to 2023 [2][9]. 4. Downstream Demand and Large Components - The gas turbine market in China reached 76.84 billion CNY in 2023, growing by 24.6% year-on-year, indicating strong demand [2][9]. - The wind power sector is also seeing increased demand, with global installations reaching 1.02 billion kW in 2023 [2][9]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.86 billion CNY, 2.12 billion CNY, and 2.38 billion CNY from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding EPS of 2.33 CNY, 2.65 CNY, and 2.97 CNY [3][14]. - The future three-year net profit growth rate is projected at 14%, with a target PE of 22 times for 2025 [2][3].