神火股份：2024年三季报点评：所得税率及云南电价下降增厚Q3业绩

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was positively impacted by a decrease in income tax rates and lower electricity prices in Yunnan [3][4] - The company reported a revenue of 28.31 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.54 billion yuan, down 13.8% year-on-year [3] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.09 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.0% and a year-on-year increase of 6.0% [3] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - The company's performance relative to the CSI 300 index shows a 23.4% increase over the past year, compared to the index's 22.9% [4] - The average price of aluminum in Q3 2024 was 19,562 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.7% [4] - The average price of alumina in Henan for Q3 was 3,917 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 34.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.4% [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 39.35 billion yuan, 40.78 billion yuan, and 42.19 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.848 billion yuan, 5.768 billion yuan, and 6.316 billion yuan for the same years [4] Dividend and Taxation - The company announced a mid-term dividend of 3.00 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 675 million yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 19.1% [4] - The income tax rate for Q3 2024 was 20.8%, down from 26% in Q2, contributing positively to the company's earnings [4]