STL(SZ:002648) Tianfeng Securities·2024-10-22 12:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price indicating a potential upside of over 20% within the next six months [7]. Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 reached 1.64 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, primarily due to low ethane prices [1]. - The average price of ethane in Q3 2024 was 16 cents per gallon, significantly lower than 29 cents per gallon in Q3 2023, leading to an increase in ethane-ethylene profit by 605 yuan per ton year-on-year [2]. - The first phase of the company's 800,000-ton multi-carbon alcohol project was successfully put into production, addressing upstream and downstream raw material supply issues in the C3 integrated industrial chain [3]. - The company signed contracts for the leasing of 8 raw material transport vessels, expected to be delivered in 2027, ensuring a stable supply of raw materials [4]. - The company forecasts net profits of 5.72 billion, 6.77 billion, and 8.71 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.70, 2.01, and 2.59 yuan per share [5]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 41.49 billion in 2023 to 78.25 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 30% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4.79 billion in 2023 to 8.71 billion in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 28.59% in 2026 [6]. - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 13.31 in 2023 to 7.32 in 2026, indicating improved valuation attractiveness [6]. - The company's total assets are expected to grow from 64.58 billion in 2023 to 76.20 billion in 2026 [9].