HXG(603112) 国泰君安·2024-10-22 16:06Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 16.35 RMB [2][4] Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, with Q4 benefiting from the home appliance replacement policy [2] - The company's white goods and automotive parts businesses are expected to fully benefit from the policy [3] - The company is expanding its second growth engine through the acquisition of automotive parts assets [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022A was 3,226 million RMB, with a slight decline of 1.7% YoY [1] - Revenue for 2023A increased by 1.2% YoY to 3,264 million RMB [1] - Revenue for 2024E is projected to grow by 17.6% YoY to 3,838 million RMB [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022A was 264 million RMB, a decline of 19.7% YoY [1] - Net profit for 2023A increased by 47.7% YoY to 389 million RMB [1] - Net profit for 2024E is expected to grow by 23.5% YoY to 481 million RMB [1] - EPS for 2022A was 0.57 RMB, increasing to 0.84 RMB in 2023A and projected to reach 1.04 RMB in 2024E [1] - ROE for 2022A was 10.9%, increasing to 14.1% in 2023A and projected to reach 15.5% in 2024E [1] Business Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue was 2,787 million RMB, an increase of 18.45% YoY [2] - Q1-Q3 2024 net profit attributable to the parent company was 341 million RMB, an increase of 21.18% YoY [2] - Q3 2024 revenue was 857 million RMB, a YoY increase of 4.75% but a QoQ decline of 13.29% [2] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to the parent company was 110 million RMB, a YoY increase of 4.82% but a QoQ decline of 12.15% [2] - Inventory at the end of Q3 2024 was 706 million RMB, a QoQ increase of 17.7% [2] - Gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 22.17%, a YoY decline of 2.55 percentage points [2] - Net margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 11.70%, a YoY increase of 0.34 percentage points [2] Industry and Policy Impact - The government's policy to promote large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement is expected to stimulate demand for white goods and automotive products [3] - The policy includes a 300 billion RMB special bond fund, with subsidies for white goods and automobiles expanded and required to be used by the end of 2024 [3] - The company's white goods business is actively expanding precision processing, while the automotive parts business is increasing overseas customer development and capacity utilization [3] - The company plans to acquire automotive parts assets to enhance market share and accelerate the development of the automotive parts sector [3] Valuation and Market Performance - The current price is 12.41 RMB, with a 52-week price range of 8.45-13.70 RMB [5] - The total market capitalization is 5,749 million RMB [5] - The P/E ratio for 2024E is 11.96, with a projected EPS of 1.04 RMB [1] - The P/B ratio is 2.0, with a net asset value per share of 6.15 RMB [6] - The stock has shown a 1-month increase of 8%, a 3-month increase of 22%, and a 12-month increase of 14% [7]