太阳纸业的成长性复盘：产能扩张为基，盈利穿越周期

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant growth driven by capacity expansion, with a cumulative net profit growth of 1649.80% from 2012 to 2023, primarily attributed to revenue growth and margin improvements [2][9] - The company is characterized as a long-cycle growth stock with notable core competitiveness, maintaining profitability across various inventory cycle stages [5][24] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability Analysis - From 2012 to 2023, the company's total revenue increased from 10.41 billion to 39.54 billion, with a CAGR of 12.90%. The net profit rose from 0.176 billion to 3.086 billion, achieving a CAGR of 29.72% [5][9] - The growth in net profit is largely attributed to revenue growth, margin improvements, and effective cost control, with the contribution rates for revenue, gross margin, and intermediate expense ratio being +769.42%, +820.05%, and +60.34% respectively [9][12] Capacity Expansion and Market Position - As of 2023, the company has a combined paper and pulp capacity exceeding 12 million tons, with paper production capacity around 7.25 million tons and pulp production capacity approximately 5 million tons [5][21] - The company has undergone multiple rounds of capacity expansion, including significant projects in Laos and Guangxi, which have established a comprehensive "forest-pulp-paper" integrated supply chain [15][21] Margin and Cost Management - The company's gross margin is influenced by product prices, raw material costs, and product mix changes, with a notable ability to stabilize margins during different inventory cycles [24][25] - In 2023, the gross margin was positively impacted by a decrease in raw material costs and effective control of intermediate expenses, despite a decline in revenue [7][9] Future Growth Prospects - Upcoming projects, including a new 30,000-ton household paper capacity in Nanning and expansions in Guangxi, are expected to drive future growth [21][22] - The company is positioned to benefit from ongoing investments in its three major production bases, enhancing its economic and scale efficiencies [15][21]