KINGSEMI(688037) 东吴证券·2024-10-23 00:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure in the short term, primarily due to upfront expenses, but there is optimism regarding the continued breakthrough and acceleration of its diversified business [1] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.105 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.44%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 108 million yuan, down 51.12% year-on-year [1] - The company has seen significant growth in R&D investment, which increased by 58% year-on-year, contributing to the decline in profits [1] - The gross margin improved significantly in Q3 2024, reaching 46.22%, up 5.10 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased due to increased expense ratios [1] - The company has a strong order backlog, with new orders signed in H1 2024 amounting to 1.219 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31% [1] - The company is positioned well in the semiconductor industry, particularly in the front-end track and cleaning equipment sectors, with ongoing development of new products [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2022 was 1.385 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 67.12%. For 2023, revenue is projected at 1.717 billion yuan, a growth of 23.98% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was 200.16 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 158.77%. The forecast for 2024 is a decrease to 206.32 million yuan, down 17.68% year-on-year [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is projected at 1.25 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 69.54 [1] Order and Market Position - As of Q3 2024, the company had inventory valued at 1.876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and contract liabilities of 470 million yuan, up 31% year-on-year [1] - The company has achieved significant breakthroughs in various fields, leading to a continuous increase in new orders [1] - The company is the only domestic provider of mass production front-end track equipment, with full coverage in wafer manufacturing processes of 28nm and above [1] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026, now estimating 210 million yuan for 2024, 330 million yuan for 2025, and 500 million yuan for 2026 [1] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a dynamic P/E of 84 for 2024, 53 for 2025, and 35 for 2026, reflecting the company's growth potential in the front-end track and cleaning sectors [1]