长虹美菱：盈利能力下降，经营外因素加大波动

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 22.758 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.73%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 530 million yuan, a growth of only 6.35% [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a single-quarter revenue of 7.81 billion yuan, up 23.21% year-on-year, but the net profit decreased by 17.99% to 115 million yuan [1]. - The gross margin in Q3 2024 fell by 4.65 percentage points to 9.98%, while the net margin decreased by 0.83 percentage points to 1.52% [1]. - The report highlights external factors affecting operations, including a significant increase in the tax rate from 3% to 15% year-on-year and a 308% rise in non-operating expenses, primarily due to relocation costs [1]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 750 million, 867 million, and 982 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 1.2%, 15.6%, and 13.3% [1][2]. Financial Summary - For 2024E, the projected revenue is 28.698 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.4% [2]. - The projected net profit for 2024E is 750 million yuan, reflecting a modest growth of 1.2% compared to 2023 [2]. - The report indicates an EPS of 0.73 yuan for 2024E, with a P/E ratio of 13.3 [2]. - The company’s net asset return rate is projected to be 12.2% for 2024E [2]. Cash Flow Situation - In Q3 2024, the company's operating cash flow net amount was 17 million yuan, a significant decline of 98% year-on-year, despite cash received from sales increasing by 3.8% to 7.777 billion yuan [1].