周大福：同店销售跌幅收窄，高毛利产品销售占比提升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][3][10] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year decline of 21% in overall retail value for the period of July to September 2024, with a 19.4% decline in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) and a 31% decline in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets [2][3] - Same-store sales in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) decreased by 24.3%, a slight improvement from the 26.4% decline in the previous quarter [2][4] - The sales structure has improved, with the proportion of high-margin priced gold jewelry products increasing from 5% in the same period last year to 12.8% this quarter, supporting the company's gross margin resilience [2][4] - The company continues to optimize store efficiency, closing a net of 142 stores during the quarter, bringing the total number of stores to 7,346 [2][4] - The company expects a decline in overall revenue of 18%-22% and a net profit decline of 42%-46% for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year, primarily due to high base effects from last year's post-pandemic demand and high gold prices suppressing end-user demand [3][4] - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook for the gold jewelry industry remains stable, supported by consumer demand for value preservation and continuous improvement in product design [3][4] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - The overall retail value decreased by 21% year-on-year, with specific declines of 19.4% in the Chinese market and 31% in Hong Kong and Macau [2][3] - Same-store sales in the Chinese market fell by 24.3%, while Hong Kong and Macau saw a consistent decline of 30.8% [2][4] Product Sales Structure - The sales of high-margin gold jewelry products increased significantly, enhancing the company's gross margin [2][4] Store Optimization - The company closed 142 stores, focusing on improving the efficiency of its retail network [2][4] Financial Forecast - The company revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 down to HKD 55.31 billion, 62.36 billion, and 69.26 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.1, 11.6, and 10.5 [3][4]