公司系我国标杆珠宝商，创立近百年，在经济周期波动中几经顺 逆，把握市场动能和消费势能、调整增长策略，坚持推动匠心工 艺、创新求变，持续引领珠宝行业，中高端旗舰品牌周大福截至 1Q25 末拥有 6423 个零售点（FY25 净减 397 家）。据欧睿数据， 2024 年公司在我国珠宝行业的市占率为 10%、位列第一。 行业趋势：黄金消费需求望触底改善，胜负手从渠道力升级至产 品力。24 年 4 月来高金价抑制终端动销，Q3 逐步触底、Q4 降幅收 窄；进入 25 年，Q1 黄金首饰消费量同比-27%，金银珠宝类社零高 基数下同比+6.9%（金价上涨拉动），Q2-Q4 低基数下预计黄金消费 同比变好。结构看，消费者对黄金饰品美学、工艺水平的需求提 升，古法金、硬足金与小克重金饰逆势销售强劲，黄金与其他材质 结合的产品受年轻消费者喜爱，景气度预计延续。 深厚的产品美学基因和品牌底蕴构筑壁垒，产品优化&门店经营提 质驱动高质发展，看好同店表现&盈利改善。 产品优化：公司拥有差异化且底蕴深厚的产品美学基因，擅长融合 现代设计、匠心工艺、传统文化，早于 2017 年就率先推出传承系 列引领古法金赛道，25 财年新品传福系 ...

公司系我国标杆珠宝商，创立近百年，在经济周期波动中几经顺 逆，把握市场动能和消费势能、调整增长策略，坚持推动匠心工 艺、创新求变，持续引领珠宝行业，中高端旗舰品牌周大福截至 1Q25 末拥有 6423 个零售点（FY25 净减 397 家）。据欧睿数据， 2024 年公司在我国珠宝行业的市占率为 10%、位列第一。 行业趋势：黄金消费需求望触底改善，胜负手从渠道力升级至产 品力。24 年 4 月来高金价抑制终端动销，Q3 逐步触底、Q4 降幅收 窄；进入 25 年，Q1 黄金首饰消费量同比-27%，金银珠宝类社零高 基数下同比+6.9%（金价上涨拉动），Q2-Q4 低基数下预计黄金消费 同比变好。结构看，消费者对黄金饰品美学、工艺水平的需求提 升，古法金、硬足金与小克重金饰逆势销售强劲，黄金与其他材质 结合的产品受年轻消费者喜爱，景气度预计延续。 深厚的产品美学基因和品牌底蕴构筑壁垒，产品优化&门店经营提 质驱动高质发展，看好同店表现&盈利改善。 产品优化：公司拥有差异化且底蕴深厚的产品美学基因，擅长融合 现代设计、匠心工艺、传统文化，早于 2017 年就率先推出传承系 列引领古法金赛道，25 财年新品传福系 ...

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 周大福（01929） 证券研究报告 消费者对工艺精湛和富情感联系黄金产品需求强劲 公司发布 FY25Q4 主要运营数据 截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日三个月（即 FY25Q4）公司零售值同减 11.6%，其中 中国内地零售值同减 10.4%，占总 89.6%。 中国内地同店销售同减 13.2%，同店销量同减 25.2%。 中国内地珠宝镶嵌、铂金和 K 金首饰同店销售（不包括加盟零售及其他渠 道零售值）同减 12%，黄金首饰及产品同减 13.8%。 FY25Q4 宏观经济外部因素及黄金价格高企持续影响消费意欲。然而， FY25Q4 公司的产品优化措施取得积极成效，带动定价产品展现强劲增长势 头及需求，加上公司开展有效农历新年营销活动，中国内地同店销售跌幅 收窄。 FY25Q4，中国内地直营店及加盟店的同店销售分别同减 13.2%及 8.7%。中 国香港及中国澳门市场继续受到市民外游以及内地旅客消费模式和喜好转 变所影响，同店销售跌幅与上一季度相若。同店销售同减 22.5%。 黄金首饰及产品类别包括按重量及固定价格出售黄金产品，该产品类别同 店平均售价 FY25Q4 维持韧性。中 ...

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 周大福（01929） 证券研究报告 消费者对工艺精湛和富情感联系黄金产品需求强劲 公司发布 FY25Q4 主要运营数据 截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日三个月（即 FY25Q4）公司零售值同减 11.6%，其中 中国内地零售值同减 10.4%，占总 89.6%。 中国内地同店销售同减 13.2%，同店销量同减 25.2%。 中国内地珠宝镶嵌、铂金和 K 金首饰同店销售（不包括加盟零售及其他渠 道零售值）同减 12%，黄金首饰及产品同减 13.8%。 FY25Q4 宏观经济外部因素及黄金价格高企持续影响消费意欲。然而， FY25Q4 公司的产品优化措施取得积极成效，带动定价产品展现强劲增长势 头及需求，加上公司开展有效农历新年营销活动，中国内地同店销售跌幅 收窄。 FY25Q4，中国内地直营店及加盟店的同店销售分别同减 13.2%及 8.7%。中 国香港及中国澳门市场继续受到市民外游以及内地旅客消费模式和喜好转 变所影响，同店销售跌幅与上一季度相若。同店销售同减 22.5%。 黄金首饰及产品类别包括按重量及固定价格出售黄金产品，该产品类别同 店平均售价 FY25Q4 维持韧性。中 ...

恒生指数日内涨超1%，恒生科技指数涨0.4%，农夫山泉(09633.HK)涨超7%，美团(03690.HK)、周大福 (01929.HK)涨近6%。 ...

截至2025年5月6日 14:35，中证港股通消费主题人民币指数(931455)上涨0.11%，成分股农夫山泉(09633) 上涨7.49%，美高梅中国(02282)上涨6.60%，周大福(01929)上涨6.04%，金沙中国有限公司(01928)上涨 5.21%，美团-W(03690)上涨4.98%。港股消费ETF(159735)上涨3.32%，最新价报0.81元。拉长时间看， 截至2025年4月30日，港股消费ETF近2周累计上涨4.53%。流动性方面，港股消费ETF盘中换手 24.85%，成交1.59亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至4月30日，港股消费ETF近1月日均成交1.54 亿元，排名可比基金第一。资金流入方面，港股消费ETF最新资金净流出312.39万元。拉长时间看，近 18个交易日内，合计"吸金"1963.10万元。 银河证券认为，随着美国所谓"对等关税"政策影响渐弱，投资者风险偏好逐步回升。积极的财政政策和 适度宽松的货币政策，有望带动港股盈利稳中有升。当前港股估值处于历史中低水平，中长期投资价值 较高。配置上，短期内关注受益于扩大内需政策的消费板块、自主可控程度提升的科技板块、贸易依赖 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Chow Tai Fook, but it provides insights into the company's performance and expectations for future profitability [4][8]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's overall retail sales value (RSV) declined by 11.6% year-on-year in FY25Q4, with the Mainland market and Hong Kong/Macao markets experiencing declines of 10.4% and 20.7% respectively, primarily due to macroeconomic factors and high gold prices affecting consumer sentiment [1][9]. - Despite the decline in same-store sales volume, the company successfully increased the RSV share of high-margin products by optimizing its product mix and adjusting pricing, leading to an increase in same-store average selling price (ASP) [1][11]. - The ASP for gold jewelry in Mainland China rose to HK$6,400, a 14.3% increase from HK$5,600 in FY24, while in Hong Kong and Macau, it rose to HK$8,600, a 14.7% increase from HK$7,500 [1][9]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In FY25Q4, same-store RSV in the Mainland market decreased by 10.4%, with direct-managed and franchised stores seeing declines of 13.2% and 8.7% respectively. The Hong Kong and Macau markets recorded a 22.5% decline in same-store RSV [2][10]. - The high gold prices have suppressed consumer willingness to purchase gold jewelry, impacting sales of gram-weight products [2][10]. Product Strategy - The company accelerated the introduction of set-price products, which accounted for 19% of total RSV in FY25, exceeding the initial target of 15%. This proportion is expected to increase to 20%-23% in FY26 [3][11]. - The RSV share of priced products in the gold jewelry category rose from 9.4% in FY24Q4 to 25.6% in FY25Q4, surpassing management expectations [3][11]. Store Network Optimization - Chow Tai Fook closed 896 stores in the Mainland market during FY25, primarily underperforming locations, with a total of 6,423 stores globally as of FY25Q4 [5][12]. - The company opened two new image stores in Shanghai and Wuhan, achieving higher productivity levels compared to closed stores, with average monthly sales of approximately HK$1 million [5][12]. Collaborative Products - In March 2025, Chow Tai Fook launched a co-branded gold jewelry collection with Chiikawa, featuring nine designs that sold out quickly, indicating strong market demand for innovative products [6][13].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Chow Tai Fook, but it discusses expectations for gross profit margin and operating profit margin improvements, indicating a positive outlook for the company [1][9][11]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's overall retail sales value (RSV) declined by 11.6% year-on-year in FY25Q4, with the Mainland market and Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets experiencing declines of 10.4% and 20.7% respectively, primarily due to macroeconomic factors and high gold prices affecting consumer sentiment [1][10]. - Despite the decline in same-store sales volume, the company successfully increased the RSV share of high-margin products through product mix optimization and flexible pricing adjustments, leading to an increase in same-store average selling price (ASP) [1][9][11]. - The ASP for gold jewelry in Mainland China rose to HK$6,400, a 14.3% increase from the previous year, while in Hong Kong and Macau, it increased to HK$8,600, a 14.7% rise [1][9]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In FY25Q4, same-store RSV in the Mainland market decreased by 10.4%, with direct-managed and franchised stores seeing declines of 13.2% and 8.7% respectively. The Hong Kong and Macau markets recorded a 22.5% decline in same-store RSV [2][10]. - The high gold prices have suppressed consumer willingness to purchase gold jewelry, impacting sales of gram-weight products [2][10]. Product Strategy - The company accelerated the introduction of set-price products, achieving a 19% share of total RSV in FY2025, exceeding the initial target of 15%. This share is expected to rise to 20%-23% in FY2026 [3][11]. - The RSV share of set-price products in the gold jewelry category increased from 9.4% in FY24Q4 to 25.6% in FY25Q4, surpassing management expectations [3][11]. Store Network Optimization - Chow Tai Fook closed 896 stores in the Mainland market during FY2025, primarily underperforming locations, with a total of 6,423 stores globally as of FY25Q4 [5][12]. - The company opened two new image stores in Shanghai and Wuhan, achieving higher productivity levels compared to closed stores, with average monthly sales of approximately HK$1 million [5][12]. Collaborative Products - In March 2025, Chow Tai Fook launched a co-branded gold jewelry collection with Chiikawa, featuring nine designs that sold out quickly, indicating strong market demand for innovative products [6][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook [4] Core Views - The overall retail value for FY25Q4 decreased by 11.6% year-on-year, with a 10.4% decline in mainland China retail value. Same-store sales in mainland China dropped by 13.2%, with specific declines in jewelry and gold products [1][7] - The company has seen a narrowing decline in retail values, with notable performance from the "Chuanfu" and "Palace Museum" series, achieving sales of 4 billion HKD each for the fiscal year [1][7] - The company is focusing on channel optimization and improving profitability, with a total of 6,423 stores at the end of FY25, having closed 892 stores during the year [1][7] Financial Data and Valuation - Projected total revenue for FY2025 is 90.375 billion HKD, with a year-on-year decline of 17%. Expected net profit for FY2025 is 5.547 billion HKD, reflecting a 15% decrease [3][11] - The current market capitalization is 90 billion HKD, with a PE ratio of 15X for FY26 [4][12] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is reported at 25.6% [4] Store Performance - Same-store sales in mainland China for FY25Q4 saw a decline of 13.2%, with a notable 22.5% drop in Hong Kong and Macau [1][7] - The company has opened new fashion stores in Shanghai and Wuhan, which have performed above average in their initial months [1][7] Product Performance - Retail value for jewelry and platinum products in mainland China increased by 2.4% year-on-year, while gold product sales saw a decline of 12.3% [1][7] - The proportion of priced products in the gold category increased significantly from 9.4% in FY24Q4 to 25.6% in FY25Q4, supporting the resilience of the group's gross margin [1][7]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that Chow Tai Fook's same-store sales decline has narrowed, aligning with expectations, while operational quality improvements and better product mix have offset the impact of increased store closures [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The group's operational quality has improved, leading to enhanced productivity and expanded profit margins, which countered the negative effects of a rising closure rate [1] - Chow Tai Fook is expected to meet its revenue guidance for the fiscal year 2025, with gross margin and operating profit margin anticipated to exceed guidance [1] - The projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earnings per share from fiscal years 2025 to 2027 is approximately 20% [1] Group 2: Strategic Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on the group, with a target price set at HKD 10.5 [1] - The firm believes that Chow Tai Fook's ongoing focus on operational quality will lead to a reduction in net store closures for the fiscal year 2026 [1]