QINGDAO SENTURY TIRE CO.(002984) 长城证券·2024-10-23 02:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [11]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 6.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.42%, and a net profit of 1.73 billion yuan, up 73.72% year-on-year [1][2]. - The production capacity of the Morocco factory is expected to ramp up significantly, with projections of 6-8 million tires in 2025 and full capacity of 12 million tires by 2026, which will contribute to new profit growth opportunities [4][2]. - The company is benefiting from a reduction in anti-dumping duties on its products, which has positively impacted profit margins [4]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a tire production of 24.24 million units, a 14.05% increase year-on-year, and sales of 23.36 million units, up 7.88% year-on-year [2]. - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is projected at 89.65 billion yuan, 115.80 billion yuan, and 138.65 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.34 billion yuan, 2.68 billion yuan, and 3.08 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.52 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.52% year-on-year, while investment cash flow was -1.83 billion yuan, down 145.32% year-on-year [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is expected to continue increasing its market share in overseas markets, supported by the growing brand strength of Chinese tire manufacturers [2]. - The Morocco project is a strategic move to diversify production locations and reduce reliance on Southeast Asia, aligning with the company's "833plus" strategic goal [4].