川宁生物2024年三季报点评：抗生素中间体维持高景气，盈利能力提升

Investment Rating - Maintains "Overweight" rating [4][5] - Target price raised to 17.48 RMB (from 14.56 RMB) [4][5] Core Views - Stable revenue growth with Q1-Q3 2024 revenue of 4.456 billion RMB (+24.43% YoY) and net profit of 1.076 billion RMB (+68.07% YoY) [4] - Q3 2024 revenue of 1.261 billion RMB (+8.31% YoY) and net profit of 310 million RMB (+24.20% YoY) [4] - Gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 35.82% (+5.89 pct YoY), with Q3 gross margin at 37.11% (+3.98 pct YoY) [4] - Net profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 24.14% (+6.27 pct YoY), with Q3 net profit margin at 24.56% (+3.15 pct YoY) [4] - Synthetic biology business is gradually materializing, with new products entering sales and trial production stages [4] Financial Performance - 2024E revenue forecast adjusted to 5.969 billion RMB (+23.8% YoY), with net profit of 1.405 billion RMB (+49.3% YoY) [9] - 2025E revenue forecast adjusted to 6.862 billion RMB (+15.0% YoY), with net profit of 1.688 billion RMB (+20.2% YoY) [9] - 2026E revenue forecast adjusted to 7.801 billion RMB (+13.7% YoY), with net profit of 1.949 billion RMB (+15.4% YoY) [9] - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 raised to 0.63/0.76/0.87 RMB (from 0.56/0.69/0.83 RMB) [4] Industry and Market Data - Total market capitalization of 29.911 billion RMB [6] - 52-week stock price range: 7.19-17.75 RMB [6] - Current price: 13.43 RMB [5] - PE ratio (2024E): 21.29x [9] - PB ratio (current): 4.0x [7] Synthetic Biology Development - Established a synthetic biology research institute in Shanghai, with products like RCB112 (squalane), RCB114 (inositol), and RCB108 (melatonin) in development [4] - New production capacity includes 300 tons of bisabolol, 300 tons of 5-HTP, 0.5 tons of ergothioneine, and 10 tons of ectoine [4] - Strategic partnerships with Beijing Microstructure Workshop and Shanghai Jincheng Technology to accelerate PHA industrialization and AI-driven R&D [4] Financial Ratios - ROE (2024E): 17.8% [9] - Gross margin (2024E): 34.9% [9] - Net profit margin (2024E): 23.5% [9] - Asset turnover ratio (2024E): 0.6x [9]