菲利华：行业景气寻底中，公司业绩承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to "Hold" with a target price of RMB 41.40 [5][4]. Core Views - The company reported Q3 revenue of RMB 399 million, a year-over-year decrease of 15.52% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 21.01%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 62.4 million, down 49.50% year-over-year and 34.20% quarter-over-quarter. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 1.314 billion, a year-over-year decline of 12.11%, and a net profit of RMB 235 million, down 42.82% year-over-year [1][2]. - The aerospace and other downstream sectors are still under pressure, impacting the company's performance. The global semiconductor industry is recovering, and domestic demand is improving, leading to steady growth in the semiconductor segment. However, the photovoltaic industry is experiencing price fluctuations due to supply-demand mismatches, and the optical fiber sector is facing declining overseas demand and intensified price competition [2][4]. - The company completed a share repurchase of approximately RMB 50 million, which will be used for employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives, aimed at enhancing employee motivation [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 revenue was RMB 399 million, down 15.52% year-over-year and 21.01% quarter-over-quarter. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 62.4 million, down 49.50% year-over-year and 34.20% quarter-over-quarter. For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue was RMB 1.314 billion, down 12.11% year-over-year, and net profit was RMB 235 million, down 42.82% year-over-year [1][2]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 42.36%, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 8.18 percentage points but remaining stable quarter-over-quarter. The net profit margin was 18.54%, down 10.72 percentage points year-over-year and 1.34 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price is set at RMB 41.40, based on a revised forecast for the company's net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026, which is estimated at RMB 425 million, RMB 598 million, and RMB 706 million, respectively. The corresponding year-over-year growth rates are -20.91%, +40.70%, and +18.01% [4][6].