甘源食品：业绩超市场预期，环比改善明显

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 1.606 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.23%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 277 million yuan, up 29.48% year-on-year [2] - Q3 revenue slightly exceeded market expectations, with growth observed across major channels compared to Q2. E-commerce and traditional channels are undergoing reforms, with improvements noted in Q3 [2] - The scale effect contributed to a significant increase in net profit margin in Q3, with a gross margin of 36.8% and a net margin of 19.7%, both showing quarter-on-quarter improvements [2] - The company is expected to continue this positive trend into Q4, driven by product mix optimization in e-commerce, further streamlining of the KA channel, and the introduction of new products in the membership system [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are set at 2.26 billion, 2.69 billion, and 3.11 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 400 million, 483 million, and 564 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 22%, 21%, and 17% respectively [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 1.451 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.11%. For 2023, revenue is projected at 1.848 billion yuan, a 27.36% increase [1] - The company’s net profit for 2022 was 158.34 million yuan, with a growth of 3.05%. The forecast for 2023 is 329.06 million yuan, reflecting a 107.82% increase [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is 3.53 yuan per share, with a projected P/E ratio of 18.13 [1]