温氏股份：畜禽成本稳步回落，分红、回购彰显信心

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the costs of livestock and poultry are steadily decreasing, and the company's recent dividend and share repurchase plans demonstrate confidence in its future performance [1][2] - The company reported a net profit of 5.081 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2024, with a proposed cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 75.38 billion yuan from January to September 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.5% [1] - The report indicates that the comprehensive cost of pig farming has been declining, with profits from pig farming in Q3 estimated at 4.6-4.7 billion yuan [1] - The company has set a target of 30-33 million pigs to be sold in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 25.7% expected in pig sales volume for 2024-2026 [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 89.921 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 112.561 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.2% [2][3] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 10.257 billion yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 6.39 billion yuan in 2023 [2][5] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 0.8% in 2023 to 17.0% in 2024 [5] - The company's total assets are expected to grow from 92.895 billion yuan in 2023 to 114.391 billion yuan in 2025 [3][4] Operational Metrics - The company plans to increase its pig output to 33 million heads in 2024, with a gradual increase to 40 million heads by 2026 [2] - The average selling price of pigs in Q3 was stable, with costs decreasing to around 14 yuan per kilogram [1] - The company’s chicken output is also projected to grow, with a target of 1.304 billion chickens by 2026, reflecting a consistent growth rate [2][5]