GANYUAN FOODS CO.(SZ:002991) HTSC·2024-10-23 06:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 86.76 [1][6]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance showed significant improvement, with revenue and net profit exceeding expectations due to stable raw material costs and scale effects [3][5]. - The company is focusing on channel adjustments, transitioning from distributors to direct sales, and enhancing e-commerce strategies, which are expected to yield positive results in the upcoming peak season [4][6]. - The report projects an upward revision of the 2024 profit forecast while adjusting downwards for 2025 and 2026 due to increased competition in the snack industry [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 1.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, and a net profit of RMB 280 million, up 29.5% [3]. - In Q3 alone, revenue reached RMB 560 million, with a net profit of RMB 110 million, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15.6% and 17.1%, respectively [3]. - The company's net profit margin improved, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 18.4% in Q3, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from seasonal stocking in the upcoming peak season, with ongoing channel optimization and expansion into overseas markets [4][6]. - The report anticipates EPS growth for 2024-2026 at RMB 4.22, RMB 4.82, and RMB 5.49, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [6][7]. Valuation Metrics - The company's projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 15.16, 13.29, and 11.65, respectively, suggesting an attractive valuation compared to peers [7][9]. - The report highlights a market capitalization of RMB 5.966 billion and a closing price of RMB 64.00 as of October 22, 2024 [8].