甘源食品：动销逐步改善，业绩超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.606 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.23%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 277 million RMB, up 29.48% year-on-year [2]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 560 million RMB, with a net profit of 110 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.58% and 17.1% respectively. The performance exceeded expectations [2]. - The company is experiencing improved sales momentum, particularly due to the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with new product launches contributing positively to sales [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 36.8%, showing a slight year-on-year decline attributed to changes in product mix, while the net profit margin improved to 19.66% [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from tax rate reductions due to its high-tech enterprise status, which will continue to enhance profitability [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 560 million RMB and a net profit of 110 million RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.58% and 17.1% respectively [2]. - The cumulative revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.606 billion RMB, with a net profit of 277 million RMB, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.23% and 29.48% [2]. Operational Analysis - The company has seen improved sales dynamics, particularly during peak seasons, and is actively developing new flavors and product specifications [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 36.8%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.7 percentage points, while the net profit margin increased by 0.3 percentage points [2]. Financial Projections - The report projects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 387 million RMB, 472 million RMB, and 558 million RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 22%, and 18% [3]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the same period are expected to be 15x, 13x, and 11x [3].