温氏股份：猪鸡共振高景气 业绩表现优秀

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating [1][8]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated excellent performance with a significant increase in revenue and profit, benefiting from the favorable pricing of pork and chicken [1]. - The company is expected to continue to benefit from the cyclical upturn in the industry, with improved breeding efficiency and cost reduction [1]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 75.384 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.408 billion RMB, marking a turnaround from losses [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 28.644 billion RMB, up 21.89% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.081 billion RMB, a staggering increase of 3097% [1]. Operational Analysis - The company sold 21.56 million pigs in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and 71.9 million chickens, up 10% [1]. - The cost of pig farming was approximately 14.2 RMB/kg, with a selling price of about 19.48 RMB/kg, resulting in a profit of around 640 RMB per pig [1]. - The average selling price for chickens in Q3 was 13.14 RMB/kg, with a profit of approximately 2.2 RMB per chicken [1]. - The company has seen a continuous decline in breeding costs due to improved efficiency and management [1]. Capacity and Financial Health - As of the end of September, the company's productive biological assets amounted to 4.849 billion RMB, reflecting a 1.2% increase from the previous quarter, indicating stable capacity growth [1]. - The asset-liability ratio decreased to 54.86% by the end of Q3 2024, down 4.09 percentage points from Q2 2024, showcasing improved financial stability [1]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 10.3 billion RMB, 12.1 billion RMB, and 11.2 billion RMB for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.55, 1.83, and 1.68 RMB [1]. - The projected PE ratios for 2024 and 2025 are 12x and 10x, respectively, supporting the "Buy" rating [1].