甘源食品2024Q3点评：税收优惠贡献弹性

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 563 million yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.58%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 111 million yuan, up 17.10% [1] - The profit exceeded market expectations due to tax incentives [1] - The company is actively embracing the bulk sales channel, and it is expected that revenue growth will improve in Q4 2024 due to the Spring Festival [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 1.606 billion yuan, an increase of 22.23%, and a net profit of 277 million yuan, up 29.48% [1] - The gross profit margin in Q3 2024 decreased by 0.75 percentage points to 36.80%, primarily due to a shift in channel structure towards lower-margin bulk sales [1] - The net profit margin increased by 0.26 percentage points to 19.66%, mainly due to the reduction in the income tax rate from 25% to 15% after obtaining high-tech enterprise recognition [1] Revenue Breakdown - The bulk sales channel is expected to see a year-on-year revenue growth of over 50% in Q3 2024, contributing significantly to the company's revenue increase [1] - The membership supermarket channel maintained steady growth, while the KA supermarket channel is still undergoing adjustments, with a forecasted reduction in decline compared to Q2 2024 [1] - The e-commerce channel is expected to see an expanded decline compared to Q2 2024, primarily due to changes in traffic distribution on Douyin, with a year-on-year revenue drop of 20% in Q3 2024 [1] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve total operating revenue of 2.262 billion yuan, 2.700 billion yuan, and 3.161 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.4%, 19.4%, and 17.1% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 390 million yuan, 470 million yuan, and 562 million yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.4%, 20.7%, and 19.4% [2] - The company's P/E ratios for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 15.31, 12.68, and 10.62, respectively [2]